COVID-19 Math

[tcpip95]

(NOTE: According to the Italian National Institute of Health, the median Time To Death (TTD) is 8 days. My daughter lives in Italy, so this has been really close to me.)

I've been looking at all the doom and gloom numbers associated with COVID-19. Early on there were numbers that said the sky was going to fall. Just really "hard to believe" numbers. So like a good nerd, I did my own math.

All these sites are comparing the number of deaths to number of cases on a daily basis. As a result, the number of cases are increasing at an exponential rate, but the number of deaths aren't. I believe that's because there's a certain amount of time (unknown) that it takes from the time a patient tests positive to the time that a person actually dies from it (what I refer to as Time To Death or TTD). If that TTD is for example, 8 days, there would be an 8 day lag between the number of cases testing positive and the number of deaths (it would take 8 days for people to start dying). So the number of cases will far outrun the number of deaths - which would show a continuous decrease in the % of deaths. Eventually though (if my logic is correct) at some time in the future, the number of cases will begin to flatten out (increase, but at a decreasing rate), and barring a miracle cure, the number of deaths will increase at a more rapid rate (as a % of new cases) until they catch up with the TTD delay.

I won't be surprised when we see the % of deaths start to rise for a period of time - the length of which will be defined by the length of the TTD. If the TTD is a shorter period (i.e. 3 days) that spike will come sooner. If the TTD is a longer period (i.e. 14 days) then that spike will come later. Either way, the numbers they have been writing about are wrong.

So does my theory hold water? Here's the result:



It spiked early on, but then over time it began a steady decline. I believe Italy is a great leading edge indicator. They've turned the corner - even though the daily numbers don't tell that story (today was Italy's worst day so far as deaths are concerned).

Here's the USA's numbers as of right now:



I believe these are much more accurate mortality rates. As we learn how to treat this better, these numbers will only go down IMHO.

[Waldo1]

Assuming your numbers are correct (not saying the aren't), then this is what it will look like on this first round. With rapid spread and no acquired immunity, you can catch it again a week after your initial 'recovery' and the 2nd time around the symptoms and outcomes may be very different. The Spanish Influenza lasted 3 years and circled the globe twice. Travel was very slow and population density much less back then. How many times can it circle the globe in 3 years, with travel the way it is now?

[neverenoughguns]

I believe we will have a vaccine within a year so hopefully the second time around is less scary.

I also believe the numbers of deaths to be a real number. The number that I think (not a dr) is report as confirmed cases is significantly less than the member that are really out there. Lots of people do not require treatment so they never get tested. We just don’t have the test kits available, that is one of the disappointments.

One of the other disappointments is how many folks are panicking because they don’t have food or supplies and/or they live paycheck to paycheck and their income is being reduced or eliminated.

Definitely for me an eye opener for how fast things can go from “normal” to something that is anything BUT normal.

[lilwoody]

We are doing math using a unknown equation. When using fractions you must have all the values of the numerator and denominator to come up with a real solution to the end value. Right now we have the numerator, numerator equaling the number of deaths +/- a small %. What we don't have is the demonator, those not or marginally effected. This number could be off by a very large factor but we don't know how much (I suspect a factor of 10).
What we do know is that there is definitely a specific demographic that is affected harder. There are algorithms being run right now on everyone on Facebook. and elsewhere that can tell when you go to the bathroom. I'm sure the same big brains could develop one to get a much better denominator by use a similar algorithm.
Or does it exist and this destruction of our economy needed to quell this bug. Or is it not needed in a large swath of our population and being used for more nefarious means. Fear is a great motivator and manipulator.

[tcpip95]

We are doing math using a unknown equation. When using fractions you must have all the values of the numerator and denominator to come up with a real solution to the end value. Right now we have the numerator, numerator equaling the number of deaths +/- a small %. What we don't have is the demonator, those not or marginally effected. This number could be off by a very large factor but we don't know how much (I suspect a factor of 10).
What we do know is that there is definitely a specific demographic that is affected harder. There are algorithms being run right now on everyone on Facebook. and elsewhere that can tell when you go to the bathroom. I'm sure the same big brains could develop one to get a much better denominator by use a similar algorithm.
Or does it exist and this destruction of our economy needed to quell this bug. Or is it not needed in a large swath of our population and being used for more nefarious means. Fear is a great motivator and manipulator.

I don’t think that the denominators are smaller than reported, which means that at the least the numbers are actually better than reported. I’m comfortable with my math. It continues to show the mortality rate is dropping.

[dammitgriff]

Nobody has any idea exactly how many people have contracted this virus within any given population due to the inability to test every person, and without that number, the mortality rate calculation is as useless as a zipper on a loincloth.
An ‘apples-to-apples’ comparison with the normal flu reveals the depth of disinformation circulating around our MSM. As usual, they’re fanning the flames of fear and hysteria while our government is busy behind the scenes passing authoritarian and socialistic legislation hand-over-fist, using the distraction of this manufactured crisis as cover.
The real threat, as usual, is our own damned government. What they are doing now will screw the American people well after Covid-19 becomes forgotten history.
R/Griff

[AirForceShooter]

How about just applying the concept of acceptable loss.

When the United States invaded europe at Normandy they took along 100,000 body bags. That was the acceptable loss.

Now you want to shut down the entire uS economy for an unknown time period. Effectively destroying our country.

Is that worth saving 500,000 lives for the benefit of the entire nation.

Take the risk and let's go back to work.

AFS

[Flame Red]

First, I really think that China released this from their Wuhan weapons lab, on purpose or accidentally I don't know. Either way, the results China gets a more even footing on their quest for world economic domination.

Second of all, the Libitards, including the deep state operatives, finally have come up with a crisis that might unseat the Donald and Donald did not see it coming.

The National Socialist Demorats got their massive bailout that looks a lot like income redistribution / minimum income.

First the Libiturds at Washington State University gave him models with 2 million deaths that were wrong and they knew it. So if the Donald did not do this lock down he would be finished in November and when the models are proven wrong the economic consequences will do the Donald in. Either way, it took the positive economy issue away from the Donald. Deep State win.

The question is if Biden is so Alzheimer that he cannot win anyway. My take, if the Demorats will vote for the Devil the Obomination twice, they certainly won't care that Uncle Joe is brain dead. Actually the Demorats love that better since then Uncle Joe will follow Soro's orders without thinking. The deep state will take charge. Or Biden will quit and his VP, Val Demmings, will be in charge. I am not sure who would be worse, Demmings ( or some other POS) or the Obomination .

[tcpip95]

US Mortality Rate has flattened out at about 7%



And Italy's continues to decline

[ABOC]

My very own educated guess for the state of Florida is that the daily number of cases has already peaked for the current wave. The number of daily deaths should peak between the 10th and 12th of April and should start following the same downward trend as the daily number of cases.

The University of Washington’s latest forecast is that Florida will peak at 149 deaths per day on April 21st.
I have no idea how they came up with these numbers and I think they are way off. We will see soon enough...

As far as charts go, mortality charts are just like the total case and total death charts: completely, absolutely and utterly meaningless. I am not going to comment on the type of garbage masquerading as data that goes in the mortality chart but one should note that to be of any use for statistical or trend analysis, the total case and total death charts would need to be displayed using a logarithmic scale... which they never are because that would make them lose their hockey stick pattern hence rendering them useless into scaring the crap out of the public.